The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has urged government institutions, businesses and the public to prepare for potential disruptions as a strengthening El Niño is expected to affect the Maldives over the coming months.
The advisory comes as international and local meteorological agencies warn that the ongoing El Niño is continuing to intensify, potentially bringing hotter temperatures, reduced rainfall and wider impacts on climate-sensitive sectors.
The Maldives Meteorological Service (MET) has forecast that the effects of El Niño in the country will reach their strongest point around November and could continue through February next year.
That outlook is consistent with the latest assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which says El Niño is now firmly established and is expected to strengthen further. WMO forecasts indicate a nearly 100 percent likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027.
With several months of potentially challenging conditions ahead, NDMA has called for preparations to begin before the effects intensify.
Businesses and state institutions have been advised to review potential vulnerabilities and establish continuity plans to ensure critical operations can continue if weather-related disruptions occur.
Particular attention has been placed on supply chains for food, medicine and other essential goods. In a geographically dispersed country such as the Maldives, where communities depend heavily on sea transport and imported supplies, interruptions to distribution networks can quickly affect individual islands.
NDMA has therefore called on relevant institutions and businesses to strengthen arrangements for maintaining essential supplies across the atolls.
Large companies as well as small and medium enterprises have also been encouraged to establish practical measures to protect their operations from adverse weather and other consequences associated with changing climate conditions.
The authority said early preparation will be important in limiting potential disruption to healthcare, food security, utilities and other essential services.
Maldives could face hotter, drier conditions
MET has previously warned that the Maldives could experience lower rainfall and above-average temperatures as El Niño strengthens.
Warmer sea surface temperatures could also create challenges for the fisheries industry, while agriculture and tourism may face their own impacts from changing weather and ocean conditions.
WMO’s latest global seasonal outlook projects further strengthening of El Niño towards the end of the year. Its models forecast the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly to average around 3.6 degrees Celsius during September to November, with intensification expected to peak around November and December.
WMO cautions, however, that the strength of an El Niño event does not automatically determine how severe its effects will be in an individual country. Regional and local climate factors can significantly influence the eventual impact.
El Niño forms when unusually warm waters develop across the central and eastern tropical Pacific alongside changes in atmospheric circulation and trade winds. Although the phenomenon originates thousands of kilometres from the Maldives, those changes can alter temperature and rainfall patterns across the globe.
The current episode developed rapidly during 2026. Earlier in the year, weak La Niña conditions were fading, with WMO forecasting a transition through neutral conditions before the likelihood of El Niño increased. By September, WMO said El Niño had become firmly established and was on course to reach very strong intensity.
For the Maldives, the coming months are expected to be particularly important. MET has already published updated El Niño information and seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks as authorities increase preparations for the changing conditions.
NDMA’s latest advisory shifts the focus from forecasting to preparedness, calling on institutions and businesses to consider how prolonged hotter and drier conditions, as well as possible weather disruptions, could affect their operations.
Authorities are particularly concerned about ensuring that essential services and supply chains remain resilient as El Niño approaches its expected peak.
