The effects of El Niño are expected to intensify in the Maldives over the coming months, with conditions forecast to reach their peak in November, according to the Maldives Meteorological Service (MET).
Speaking to PSM News, MET said the weather phenomenon is expected to influence conditions in the Maldives through February next year, bringing lower rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures.
The agency warned that the effects could extend beyond day-to-day weather, with key industries including fisheries, tourism and agriculture potentially facing challenges during the period.
“The effect of El Niño will reach its maximum during November. However, this condition is expected to extend until February next year,” MET said.
According to the agency, reduced rainfall is among the main effects expected in the Maldives as El Niño strengthens. Air temperatures are also forecast to remain above average, potentially resulting in hotter conditions across the country.
Changes in sea surface temperatures could have implications for the fisheries sector, one of the Maldives’ most important industries. Ocean temperature changes can affect the distribution and movement of fish, potentially altering fishing conditions and catch patterns.
MET also identified tourism and agriculture among the sectors that could be affected, urging industries vulnerable to changing weather and ocean conditions to make preparations in advance.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Although the phenomenon originates far from the Maldives, it can influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across large parts of the world.
Its effects vary considerably by region. For the Maldives, MET expects the upcoming period to be characterised primarily by reduced rainfall, warmer atmospheric conditions and higher sea surface temperatures.
The warning is particularly significant for a low-lying island nation where economic activity and daily life are closely tied to the ocean and seasonal rainfall.
Periods of reduced rainfall can also place additional pressure on freshwater availability on islands that depend heavily on rainwater, while prolonged hotter conditions can increase electricity demand for cooling.
MET has therefore advised the fisheries, tourism and agriculture sectors to prepare for possible disruptions rather than waiting for the phenomenon to reach its strongest phase.
While El Niño is expected to peak in November, MET said its influence is forecast to remain through February, meaning the Maldives could experience its effects for several months after the period of maximum intensity.
